本文分析了农地流转市场发育对粮食生产的影响及其机制,并着重考察了耕地资源禀赋、农产品市场容量以及地形地貌引致的要素替代难易度三项约束条件对上述影响机制的作用。分析结果表明,农地流转市场发育程度提高会导致粮食播种面积及其在农作物播种面积中的比例同时下降,对粮食生产造成不利影响;但这种负向作用在不同约束条件下会有所差异,在耕地资源比较丰裕、耕地适宜机械化作业的平原地区以及远郊地区,上述负向作用会被不同程度地弱化。因此,在中国农地流转深入推进的过程中,除了需要关注粮食安全问题,还需要关注农户在生产结构调整中面临的资源禀赋约束、农产品市场容量与要素替代难易度等约束条件的影响。
This article analyzes the influence and mechanisms of market development of farmland transfer on the grain production, especially under different constraining conditions of cultivated land resources, agricultural market capacity and the degree of difficulty in factor substitution caused by topographic features. The results show that farmland transfer has caused a decline both in the acreage of grain and its proportion to crop acreage, which generates hamaful effects on grain production. However, this negative impact is constrained by different conditions. The negative effects would be reduced in rural, remote areas and plain areas which is abundant in land resources and suitable for mechanization. Therefore, the study concludes that, besides food security, more attention needs to be paid to the conslraining conditions that farmers are facing in the process of promoting China's farmland transfer, such as resource constraints, agricultural market capacity and the degree of difficulty in factor substitution in the adjustment of production structure.