中文摘要：

确定合理设备检修周期时通常假设设备是逐步退化、不可能短期发生重大故障,这使得设备预期寿命可简化为各状态平均时长相加,但是忽略了设备短期发生较大故障的情况,与现实有所偏离.为此,以三状态下可维修设备的可靠性为研究内容,综合考虑设备发生故障的各种情况,通过引入首达时概念,利用强马氏过程的性质,得到设备寿命的分布及设备预期寿命计算方法,为设备可靠性分析、制定检修维护策略提供理论基础.

英文摘要：

To determine the optimal equipment maintenance cycle, it is usually assumed that the equipment deteriorates gradually state by state and doesn＇t jump to a serious state during a short period. The convenience of this assumption is the expected life can be calculated by summing all the expected life of each state. Actually, it neglects the happening of some serious failure during a short period. So in this paper, all kinds of the failures are considered taking a three-state equipment as an example. The concept of first arriving time is introduced and the properties of strong Markov process are used to obtain the probability distribution and the expectation of the equipment＇s life. These conclusions can give some theoretical foundations to build the optimum management models.