中文摘要：

由于受多方面因素的影响,实际路段上的交通需求是不确定的,可能会在一定的区间范围内。在现有信息技术的支持下,路段的交通需求可以采用区间值进行衡量。为了在交通需求为区间值的情况下研究交通分布预测方法,首先探讨了国内外现有的交通分布预测模型及算法,接着将其与区间分析方法结合起来,提出改进的Furness方法,并给出该方法的迭代终止条件,用区间数距离表示,然后提出该方法详细的算法步骤,最后根据一个算例对提出的方法及算法步骤进行验证。研究结果证明该方法合理有效。

英文摘要：

Due to many factors, road traffic demand is uncertain and may be in a certain range of the interval. With the support of the existing information technology, the traffic demand of roads can be measured by the interval-value. In order to study the method of traffic distribution prediction when the traffic demand is an interval-value, this paper first dis- cusses the domestic and foreign existing traffic distribution prediction model and algorithm, which is then combined with interval analysis method. The improved Furness method is proposed, and iteration termination condition is given, which is represented by the interval number distance, and then put forward the detailed algorithm steps of the method. Finally, the proposed method and algorithm steps based on a numerical example are validated and the results are reasonable and effective.