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中文摘要：
滑坡灾害的突发特征和滑坡运动的不确定性，使得斜坡稳定状态预测成为岩土工程领域内的一个难点。模糊马尔科夫链状模型能够预测序列从某种模糊状态出发转移到其它状态的概率，非常适合斜坡工程的稳定状态预测。文章首先介绍了模糊马尔科夫链的概念、特点及该方法的原理、算法，之后将其应用到实际的边坡稳定状态预测分析中。实际边坡滑动经过稳定状态、基本稳定状态、临界状态、失稳状态，应用模糊马尔科夫原理分析边坡稳定状态变化，进行斜坡变形一失稳过程预测预报。通过实例应用表明，预测结果与实际情况吻合较好。为此。该模型能够准确地对斜坡稳定状态进行预测。
英文摘要：
Landslide＇s outburst and movement uncertainty make it difficult to predict stability of the geotechnical engineering. Fuzzy Markov chains model is suited for predicting such change as from one fuzzy state to another. Firstly, the paper introduces the conception, characteristic, principle and algorithm of the fuzzy Markov chains. Then the algorithm is applied to the stability prediction of the actual slope. The application results show that the prediction is well coincident with the fact. So the model can be applied to the landslide stability prediction.
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