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中文摘要：
通过对国际EPC项目风险因子的识别，从环境、技术、财务、进度、其他等方面构建了风险评价指标体系，应用蒙特卡罗模拟法的第三方软件---水晶球模型，对厄瓜多尔德尔西水电站EPC项目的风险进行了仿真评价，结果显示，其技术风险为31．2％，经营管理风险为26．1％，经济风险为22．4％，技术风险对于“一年收益抵消风险损失”的负面影响最大。实例证明，MCM水晶球模型应用方便，准确性高，适用于国际EPC项目风险仿真评价。
英文摘要：
This paper established a risk evaluation index system mainly from the aspects of environment,technology,finance,schedule control and others,through the identification of International EPC Project Risk Factors. The simulated evaluation of EPC Project’s risk in Ecuador del west hy-dropower station based on Monte Carlo simulation method （MCM）’s third party software-crystal ball model. The result shows that the technical risks account for 31. 2%,operational risks 26. 1% and economic risks 22. 4% of the,operational risks having the maximum negative impact on a year gains against the risk loss. It shows through examples that the application of MCM crystal ball model is convenience,high accuracy,applicable to international EPC project risk evaluation.
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