目的分析2005-2012年湖区5省急性血吸虫感染(急感)发病时间及空间聚集性,为制定防治策略和采取有效控制措施提供科学依据。方法收集2005-2012年湖区5省急感病例基本信息,采用集中度和圆形分布法对急感的流行季节及时间聚集性进行分析,并采用空间自相关分析对病例的空间聚集性进行分析。结果急感发病具有较强的季节性,集中度为0.758,其发病高峰日为8月10日左右。急感病例分布图提示急感病例在空间上高度聚集于鄱阳湖、洞庭湖及长江流域周边5省的23个县,空间自相关分析结果显示2005-2012年间急感空间自相关系数I=0.16(P=0.01)。结论湖区5省急感发病时间上具有较强的季节性,空间上呈聚集状态,可据此将防控关口前移,在高聚集区开展有针对性的防控措施。
Objective To analyze the time and space aggregation of acute schistosome infections in marshland and lake areas in five provinces(Jiangsu,Anhui,Jiangxi,Hubei and Hunan province)from 2005 to 2012,so as to provide the evidence for es-tablishing control strategies and taking effective control measures. Methods The data of patients with acute schistosome infection in marshland and lake areas in five provinces from 2005 to 2012 were collected and analyzed with the concentration ratio and circu-lar distribution methods for the epidemic season features and time aggregation of the infection,and with the spatial autocorrelation analysis for the space aggregation of the infected cases. Results According to the concentration ratio,the occurrence of acute schistosome infection had strong seasonality,and the concentration ratio was 0.758;according to the circular distribution method, the peak day of acute schistosome infections was 10th,August. The spatial analysis suggested that the infected cases highly gath-ered around Poyang Lake,Dongting Lake and Yangtze River Basin in 23 counties of the five provinces,and the result of spatial au-tocorrelation analysis showed that the spatial autocorrelation index I was 0.16(P=0.01). Conclusion The occurrence of acute schistosome infections in lake regions of the 5 provinces shows strong seasonality and space aggregation,therefore we can bring the control mark forward,and take targeted prevention and control measures in high aggregation areas of acute schistosomiasis.