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中文摘要：
本文采用连续性动态分布方法结合2002—2011年286个地级以上城市的面板数据分析了中国碳排放强度和人均碳排放的动态演进和长期趋势。研究发现,虽然在研究时期内碳排放强度和人均碳排放均为单峰分布,但按照目前的发展趋势,二者都将出现明显的俱乐部收敛现象,且这种俱乐部收敛并不由地域因素决定。为了避免出现俱乐部收敛的极化现象,应重点控制碳排放强度约为4.05、4.7倍均值和人均碳排放约为3.9、5.0倍均值城市的碳减排。
英文摘要：
This paper uses the continuous dynamic distribution approach to study the dynamic evolution and long-term trend of carbon emission intensity and per capita carbon emissions,basing on the panel data of 286 cities and prefecturelevel cities from 2002 to 2011 in China. It shows that both carbon dioxide emission intensity and per capita dioxide emissions are unimodal distributions during the study period,while from the trend,they will converge to a few ＂clubs＂which are not determined by regional characters. To avoid the possible polarization of club convergence,the government should pay more attention to the cities with carbon dioxide emission intensity value of 4. 05,4. 7 times to yearly average or per capita carbon dioxide emissions of 3. 9,5. 0 times to yearly average.
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