中文摘要：

依据1990-2013年江苏省能源消费统计资料和1990、1995、2000、2005、2010年的人口空间分布数据,估计江苏省人为热排放量、探讨其时空分布特征并预测其未来变化趋势。研究结果表明,20多年来江苏省的人为热排放量持续增长,从1990年全省平均的0.59 W/m^2增加到2013年的2.85 W/m^2。排放的空间分布也不均匀,总体上江苏南部地区的排放通量高于江苏北部。近些年江苏省的人为热排放已成为区域问题,高值区已连接成片,2010年江苏省大部分地区的人为热排放高于2.5 W/m^2,南部主要城市排放通量大于10 W/m^2、北部城市也多大于5 W/m^2。江苏各城市的城区人为热排放通量稳步增长,2002年后增长加速、增量最高可达到2 W m^-2a^-1。在2030年和2050年江苏省的平均人为热排放通量将分别达到5.7 W/m^2和9.1 W/m^2,可能对中国东部的气候和大气环境产生重要影响。

英文摘要：

The energy consumption and demographic data in Jiangsu Province have been exploited to estimate the anthropogenic heat emissions over Jiangsu Province. The spatial and temporal variations of anthropogenic heat emissions and their possible changes in the future are analyzed. Results show that the annual average anthropogenic heat flux in Jiangsu Province has been continuously increasing since 1990. The mean value averaged over Jiangsu Province increases from 0.59 W/m^2 in 1990 to 2.85 W/m^2 in 2013. The spatial distribution of anthropogenic heat flux is inhomogeneous, and the emission flux in southern Jiangsu is higher than that in northern Jiangsu. High emissions usually occur in urban areas. In 2010, the regional average value of anthropogenic heat flux over Jiangsu is about 2.5 W/m^2. The high values over urban areas in southern Jiangsu are greater than 10 W/m^2, while those in urban areas in northern Jiangsu are larger than 5 W/m^2. The anthropogenic heat emissions over all urban areas in Jiangsu Province have been steadily increasing. After 2002, the increasing rate accelerates and reaches up to 2 W m^-2a^-1. Based on the present trends of energy consumption and population growth, the mean anthropogenic heat flux over Jiangsu is projected to be 5.7 W/m^2 and 9.1 W/m^2 in 2030 and 2050, respectively. The above results imply that anthropogenic heat emissions may exert significant influences on regional climate and air quality in East China.