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中文摘要：
针对不确定性条件下的最优路径问题,引入行驶时间波动性及路段间相关性,定义最优路径为一定概率保证程度下行驶时间期望值最小的路径.以Dijkstra算法为基础,从不同路段行驶时间相互独立及相互关联两个角度,分别建立动态路径寻优模型和时间期望函数模型;设计适用于不确定条件下搜寻最优路径的BEST算法,并通过仿真实验验证模型的可行性.结果表明：时耗方差选择的差异化会导致最优路径解的多样化;考虑路段间相关性后绕城公路对市区公路的选择替代性增强.
英文摘要：
Aiming at the problem of the optimal path under uncertainty,the time volatility and correlation between roads were introduced,and the optimal path was defined as the path of the minimum travel time expectation under a certain degree of probability.Based on the Dijkstra algorithm,the dynamic path optimization model and the time expectation function model were established respectively from the two angles of the traffic time fluctuation of different sections and the driving time of each link.The BEST algorithm was designed to search the optimal path under uncertain conditions,and the feasibility of the model was verified by the simulation experiment.Results show that different choice of time variance will lead to the diversification of the optimal solutions,and the alternative between the ring road and urban road can enhance while roads correlation is considered.
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