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中文摘要：
采用Copula函数建立感潮地区暴雨和外江（海）潮水位遭遇的联合分布,提出了设计组合下涝灾风险的分析方法,并定义和分析了暴雨和潮水位的联合风险率和同现风险率.通过研究中山市坦洲镇涝区的暴雨和潮水位的遭遇表明,AMH Copula函数能够较好地模拟暴雨与潮水位的联合分布;若设计暴雨为20年一遇,则与多年平均潮位或5年一遇潮位组合的排涝风险率分别不超过6.39%、9.58%;若设计暴雨为10年一遇,则与多年平均潮位或5年一遇潮位组合的排涝风险率分别不超过10.39%、7.04%;20年一遇暴雨、10年一遇暴雨分别与多年平均潮位或5年一遇潮位的同现风险率分别为0.086%、0.279%和0.173%、0.56%.
英文摘要：
The Copula theory is applied to construct the joint distribution of rainstorm and tidewater level.Based on the bivariate joint distribution,the approaches for calculating risk probability for waterlogging control,joint risk probability and simultaneous risk probability are put forward.The case study is conducted;and the results indicate that the AMH Copula function is capable of well simulating the joint distribution of the rainstorm and the tidewater level in Tanzhou section of Zhongshan city in Guangdong province.The risk probability for waterlogging control isn＇t more than 6.39% or 9.58% respectively,when the rainstorm with a return period of twenty years combines with the average value of annual maximum tidewater level or the tidewater level with a return period more than five years;while the risk probability for waterlogging control isn＇t respectively more than 10.39% or 7.04% when the return period of the rainstorm is ten years.The simultaneous risk probability is respectively 0.086% or 0.279%,0.173% or 0.56%,when the rainstorm with a return period of twenty years or ten years encounters the average value of annual maximum tidewater level or the tidewater level with a return period more than five years.
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