中文摘要：

以黄龙山林区为研究对象，以其1986年、1997年、2006年森林资源二类调查资料为数据源，运用GIS空间分析模型、土地利用动态度模型对该林区三期林地面积变化及水平空间格局特征进行了分析，并运用马尔可夫（Markov）模型对2015年林地类型分布状况进行了预测。研究表明：研究区林地类型结构以阔叶林和针叶林为主；1986—1997年间，针叶林、阔叶林、农田等面积增加，荒地剧烈减少，反映出该区域天然更新、人工抚育和植树造林以及垦荒造田的发展过程；199．7—2006年间，退耕还工程的实施，使农田和荒地减少，阔叶林和灌木林地，特别是针叶林的大幅增加，主要变化趋势为其他土地利用类型转向有林地和灌木林地，土地利用类型向着更加理想的方向转移。Markov模型模拟结果表明，今后9年内阔叶林面积将会由增加转为减少，针叶林面积和针阔混交林面积有所增加，这一结果将在2015年林地变化调查中进行验证。

英文摘要：

Taking Huanglong Mountain Forests Area as a object for research and taking forest resources inventory data of 1986, 1997 and 2006 years as data source, this essay focuses on change analysis, spatial pattern and prediction of forest lands based on spatial analysis model of GIS, dynamic degree of land use and Markov model. The results show that the main type of forest lands in the area are broadleaves forest lands and conifer forest lands. Area of conifer, broadleaves and farmland are increasing while area of barren lands are decreasing from 1986 to 1997 years, these are because of natural renewal, manpower upbringing, afforest- ation and converting barren lands to farmlands. Because of Grain for Green Pro- ject, Area of broadleaves, shrub land, especially conifer are increasing while farmland and barren lands are decreasing from 1997 to 2006 years. The major change way was that other land use types changed into forest and shrub land which are accord with idealized state. Markov prediction reveals that the broadleaves for- est lands will begin to decrease after increasing, conifer forest and theropencedrymion persistently increase, which will be confirmed in surveying of forest land change in 2015.