中文摘要：

为水库防洪条例进程，河功课洪水版本，和洪水风险的计算的三个随机的数学模型在洪水控制下面评价从 Xixian 在 Huaihe 河的中间的活动范围基于随机的微分方程的理论和洪水控制系统的特征被建立到 Bengbu 制约，包括地考虑水文学， hydraulics ，和工程控制的不明确的因素。他们被用来与五座关键水库的防洪条例计算洪水风险率，包括在在不同洪水频率下面的 Huaihe 河的中间的活动范围的 Meishan ， Xianghongdian ， Nianyushan ， Mozitan ，和 Foziling 水库，有在为与相关洪水存储区域一起的 Huaihe 河的箱子的设计和检查洪水下面的河功课洪水版本的洪水风险率，和洪水风险在设计和检查 flo 下面与 Linhuaigang 工程的操作评价计算结果证明(1 ) 五座水库能承受设计洪水，但是 Xianghongdian 和 Foziling 水库将在检查洪水下面承受高出的事故；(2 ) 就洪水存储的服务而言，在设计下面的区域充满 Huaihe 河的条件，有从 Xixian 的女同性恋和到 Bengbu 制约的水坝的防洪条例的吝啬的洪水风险率是大约 0.2，并且 Huaihe 河的箱子能通常承受设计洪水；并且(3 ) 在有洪水的检查洪水下面归还 1 000 年的时期， Linhuaigang 的事故投射的高出的风险率不比 0.15 大，显示它有一个高防洪条例能力。通过 Linhuigang 工程的洪水控制系统的规定和申请， Huaihe 河盆能承受大洪水，并且保护的区域的安全能被保证。

英文摘要：

Three stochastic mathematical models for calculation of the reservoir flood regulation process, river course flood release, and flood risk rate under flood control were established based on the theory of stochastic differential equations and features of flood control systems in the middle reach of the Huaihe River from Xixian to the Bengbu floodgate, comprehensively considering uncertain factors of hydrology, hydraulics, and engineering control. They were used to calculate the flood risk rate with flood regulation of five key reservoirs, including the Meishan, Xianghongdian, Nianyushan, Mozitan, and Foziling reservoirs in the middle reach of the Huaihe River under different flood frequencies, the flood risk rate with river course flood release under design and check floods for the trunk of the Huaihe River in conjunction with relevant flood storage areas, and the flood risk rate with operation of the Linhuaigang Project under design and check floods. The calculated results show that （l） the five reservoirs can withstand design floods, but the Xianghongdian and Foziling reservoirs will suffer overtopping accidents under check floods; （2） considering the service of flood storage areas under the design flood conditions of the Huaihe River, the mean flood risk rate with flood regulation of dykes and dams from Xixian to the Bengbu floodgate is about 0.2, and the trunk of the Huaihe River can generally withstand design floods; and （3） under a check flood with the flood return period of 1 000 years, the risk rate of overtopping accidents of the Linhuaigang Project is not larger than 0.15, indicating that it has a high flood regulation capacity. Through regulation and application of the flood control system of the Linhuigang Project, the Huaihe River Basin can withstand large floods, and the safety of the protected area can be ensured.