中文摘要：

Drawn on the data collected by surveying 1 340 urban households from six cities in China, this paper estimates the impacts of demographic structure and population aging on household meat consumption, by jointly considering meat consumed at home and away from home. Based on the trajectories of population, a simple simulation on meat demand trend in China is conducted subsequently. The results suggest: 1) Meat consumed away from home averagely accounts for near 30% of household total meat consumption in terms of quantity, so that its omission likely leads to a significant underestimate of total meat consumption and misunderstanding the driving forces; 2) population aging significantly and negatively affects per capita meat consumption, suggesting that the expected meat demand in China without considering population aging will be overestimated. The findings from this study have important implications for better understanding the relative issues on China’s meat consumption under the situation of population aging.

英文摘要：

Drawn on the data collected by surveying 1 340 urban households from six cities in China, this paper estimates the impacts of demographic structure and population aging on household meat consumption, by jointly considering meat consumed at home and away from home. Based on the trajectories of population, a simple simulation on meat demand trend in China is conducted subsequently. The results suggest： 1） Meat consumed away from home averagely accounts for near 30% of household total meat consumption in terms of quantity, so that its omission likely leads to a significant underestimate of total meat consumption and misunderstanding the driving forces; 2） population aging significantly and negatively affects per capita meat consumption, suggesting that the expected meat demand in China without considering population aging will be overestimated. The findings from this study have important implications for better understanding the relative issues on China＇s meat consumption under the situation of population aging.