中文摘要：

为了实现对固体密实充填开采地表沉陷进行科学地预计，需要根据其覆岩结构形态演化规律和岩层移动特征建立完备的沉陷预计模型及其参数体系。相似材料模拟和钻孔窥视表明，固体密实充填开采覆岩形态以完整层状结构的弯曲带为主，覆岩仅在近顶板附近发育一定高度的断裂带，不发生垮落现象。岩层移动特征类似纵向载荷作用下层合板的弯曲变形，通过力学简化，基于层合板理论建立了固体密实充填开采地表沉陷预计模型。研究表明，固体密实充填开采地表沉陷形态仍可用概率积分模型进行描述，并进一步探讨了基于“等价釆高”的固体密实充填开采地表沉陷预计模型参数体系。最后将本文建立的地表沉陷预计模型应用于某工程实例，取得了良好的效果。

英文摘要：

In order to achieve predicting the surface subsidence caused by solid compacted backfilling mining scientifically, it is necessary to establish the completed prediction model and its parameter system according to the evolvement rule of the structure form and movement characteristics of overburden rock. By means of similar material simulation and borehole peep, it is shown that overburden rock of mining with solid compacted backfilling is given priority to sagging zone, which appears complete layer structure, only develops some height of the fault zone near the roof strata, but not caving. The strata movement characteristic is similar to bending deformation of the laminated plates under the longitudinal loading, after a simplified mechanics. Based on the theory of laminated plates, surface subsidence prediction model of mining with solid compacted backfilling is established. It is shown that surface subsidence form of mining with solid compacted backfilling is still suitably described with probability integral model;and further discuss on parameters system of the surface subsidence prediction mode based on“equivalent mining thick”theory is carried out. Finally, the surface subsidence prediction model is applied to a real project, which obtains a good effect.