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中文摘要：
根据1960-2007年大同逐月平均气温和逐月降水资料,分析了近48 a大同市在全球增暖影响下气温和降水的变化;采用滑动t检验法和信噪比法分析了气温突变的时间点;在此基础上研究了大同市气温突变前后旱涝灾害的变化,并运用马尔可夫模型对未来5 a旱涝状况进行了预测。结果表明：近48 a来大同市气温呈明显的上升趋势;随着气温的升高,该市干旱灾害的比例增幅比较明显,特别是在气温突变后,干旱（4级和5级）的概率达到63.64%,2009-2012年处于＂偏旱＂的概率较大。
英文摘要：
Based on monthly average temperature and precipitation data in Datong City from 1960～2007,the average temperature and precipitation changes are analyzed under the influence of global warming.The abrupt temperature is determined by sliding t-test and SNR method.On this basis,study is made on the droughts and floods around abrupt temperature change in Datong.The prediction states of drought and flood in the next 5 years is determined by Markov.The results indicate： The temperature has been rising obviously in Datong in recent 48 years;As the temperature rises,the proportion of drought increases obviously.Especially after the abrupt temperature change,the probability of drought state（4 and 5） is as high as 63.64%.There is a certain probability of weak drought state from 2009～2012.
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