从分析能源、经济和环境组成的3E系统相互作用机制出发,运用联立方程模型对中国1998—2010年的时间序列数据进行分析。实证结果表明:①能源消费快速增加主要是由经济增长引起的,同时减少温室气体排放增加了能源消费,而减少能源强度能够明显降低能源消费;②能源消费和资本投入等生产要素促进了经济增长,环境污染对经济增长产生负面影响;③环境污染主要是由能源消费和经济发展引起的,调整产业结构能够减少污染物排放。因此,研究结论隐含了政府能够通过转变经济增长模式,继续降低能源强度,大力发展第三产业和积极治理环境污染等措施实现能源、经济和环境的可持续发展。
Starting with analyzing the interaction mechanism of 3E system from the energy, economic and environment, this paper establishes simultaneous equation model to describe the mechanism between 1998 and 2010 in China. The empirical conclusions show some points. Firstly the rapid growth of energy consumption is mainly caused by economic growth, and reduction of greenhouse gas emissions will increase energy consumption, but decline in energy intensity can significantly reduce energy consumption. Secondly, energy consumption and capital inputs promote economic growth, but environmental pollution has a negative impact on economic growth. Thirdly, environmen- tal pollution is caused by energy consumption and economic development, and adjustmem of the industrial structure can reduce emissions of pollutants. Therefore, it is suggested that the government should transform the economic growth mode, continue to reduce energy intensi-ty, and vigorously develop the tertiary industry and actively control environment pollution etc. to achieve sustainable development of ener-gy, economy and environment.