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中文摘要：
准确的武器备件故障率预测对制定精确的维修保障计划,降低维修保障费用等方面具有重大意义。通过对典型的故障率曲线的分析,依据灰色预测理论,在灰色GM（1,1）模型的基础上建立了离散的灰色GM（1,1）模型,通过实例对武器备件故障率进行了预测,为武器备件的故障率预测提供了一种新的途径和方法。
英文摘要：
Accurate failure rate prediction of weapon spares is of great importance for drawing up an accurate maintenance and support plan and reducing the cost in maintenance and support. According to the Grey Prediction Theory, with the aid of the analysis of the typical failure rate curve, the discrete grey model GM （1, 1） was established on the basis of the grey model GM （1, 1）. A prediction on the failure rate of weapon spares was performed through a living example. The study results can provide a new kind of approach for the failure rate prediction of weapon spares.
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