中文摘要：

以天津市为例研究我国北方高强度开发的水资源供需问题。分析天津市近几十年的水资源供用现状，结合区域发展规划预测其2020年水资源需求量和供应量，并对其水资源供需平衡进行分析。结果表明，天津市近年年均水资源量为16.90亿m3，水资源供需一直存在较大矛盾；2020年水资源需求量为52.53～54.90亿m3，供应量为48.04～50.54亿m3。在平水年(50%,保证率)，水资源供需平衡为－1.99亿m3，少量缺水；在偏枯水年(75%,保证率)，水资源供需平衡为－6.86亿m3，会出现水资源短缺情况，若遇特枯水年缺水则非常严峻。针对水资源短缺的情况，天津市需要采取各项措施开源节流，保证水资源供应。研究具有一定的学术价值和现实意义。

英文摘要：

There is a certain academic value and practical significance to study the supply and demand of water resources in Tianjin which represents high strength development area in north China.Firstly,it analyzes the water resources supply situation of Tianjin city in recent decades;then forecasts the water demand and supply and the balance between them in2020 based on regional development planning.The results showed:the annual water resources quantity is 1.69 billion m3 inrecent years and there has been a great contradiction between supply and demand of water resources in Tianjin;in 2020,the demand for water resources will be 5.25～5.49 billion m3,the supply be 4.80～5.05 billion m3;in normal years(50%,guarantee rate),supply and demand balance of water resources would be-0.199 billion m3;in dry years(75%, guarantee rate),it would be-0.686 billion m3 and there would be a short of water resources;in special dry years,there would be a very serious water shortage.Aiming at the shortage of water resources,it needs to take various measures to broaden the income and reduce expenditure of water to ensure the supply.