文章借助各省区人口老龄化的演变过程及其与本地区经济的发展相关程度变化,来判别中国是否出现“未富先老”、“城乡倒置”或“人口红利”消失阻滞经济发展以及区域差异化演变等问题。通过一系列的数据分析发现:(1)中国各省区的人口老龄化演变阶段差异很大,但基本没有出现“未富先老”,人口老龄化并没有妨碍经济发展,这既与经济转型、开放经济等有关,也符合全球人口老龄化演化的一般规律;(2)勾画中国各省区人口老龄化演变特征,可将其划分成四类不同的人口老龄化类型,其演变历程的地域推移与地域集聚现象十分明显。就目前的演变过程来看,中国人口老龄化与地区经济发展有明显相关性,经济发展成为中国人口老龄化的重要推动因素之一。
AbslTact: This paper examines regional differences and changing regional patterns of population ageing in China and their relationship with regional economic development. Results suggest that stages of regional population aging are very different across China, " getting old before getting rich" has not been observed, and population aging has not impeded economic growth. This is related to economic transition and open economy, and is also in line with the general laws of the worlds population aging experiences. This paper also outlines evolutions of China's population aging across provinces and divides them into three different types of population aging, with apparent regional diffusion and geo- graphical agglomeration. Population aging in China has a significant correlation with regional economic development. Economic development has increasingly become an important force driving population ageing.