中文摘要：

本文基于2003-2011年湖北省农村固定观察点数据及气象数据,运用＂Z指数＂法核算各气象站点的雨涝发生等级,并对其特征进行分析。依据＂Z指数＂计算结果将年份划分为正常年份与雨涝灾害年份,运用计量经济学方法定量分析雨涝灾害对水稻种植户要素投入行为的影响。研究发现,2003-2011年间湖北偏涝少于大涝,极涝并未出现,大涝、偏涝发生区域较为集中。此外,稻农生产要素投入在正常年和雨涝灾害年间存在显著差异。雨涝灾害的发生对中间投入、劳动力投入具有显著的正向影响,且对后者影响程度最大。另外,分位数回归表明,随着分位数的提高,雨涝灾害对中间投入、劳动力投入的影响程度逐渐提高。因此,有必要加强对湖北雨涝灾害的预警及预报,为农户尤其是高投入水平的种植大户提供必要的公共服务及知识技术支持。

英文摘要：

We used Rural Fixed Observation Point Data and meteorological data for Hubei Province,China from 2003 to 2011 and the Z-index method to calculate the rain-waterlog occurrence for each meteorological observation station. The normal years and years of rainwaterlog were divided and labeled according to Z-index results,and characteristics of the Z-index were analyzed. We focused on the influence of rain-waterlog on production factor investment by rice households and examined whether influences differ among households. We found that from 2003 to 2011 in Hubei,the occurrence frequency of weak rain-waterlogging was less than rainwaterlogging;strong rain-waterlogging did not occur. Areas of rain-waterlogging and weak rainwaterlogging were relatively concentrated. There is a significant difference between production factor investment by rice households in normal years and rain-waterlogged years. The occurrence of rain-waterlogging has a significant positive influence on intermediate investment and labor input,and labor input is more affected. Quantile regression shows that,with the increase in quantiles,the influence of rain-waterlogging on intermediate investment and labor input is gradually increased. It is necessary to strengthen early warning and forecasting of rainwaterlogging in Hubei,and provide necessary public services,knowledge and technological support to rice households. It is also important to improve disaster prevention and risk awareness for large growers at high factor investment levels.