基于预期未来人口密度加速增长和绿色GDP(GGDP)重启的背景,参考2004年国家绿色经济核算公告,核算出各省2004-2013年的绿色经济发展水平,然后运用面板模型分析了人口密度、能源消费、绿色经济发展间的关系,并检验了能源消费的调节效应与中介效应。研究结果表明:沿海经济发达省市和部分化石能源较贫乏省市绿色经济发展水平较高;主要化石能源开采省市绿色经济发展水平较低;人口密度与能源消费、绿色经济发展均呈倒"U"型曲线关系且人口密度的拐点值都大于现实值;能源消费与绿色经济发展呈线性关系且在人口密度与绿色经济发展间起到部分中介效应,而调节效应并不显著。
Based on the acceleration of the expected future population density growth and the backgroundof green GDP(GGDP) restart, with the reference to the 2004 national green economic accounting announcement, the level of GGDP in each province was accounted. Then, with the utilization of the panel regression model, the relationship among population density, energy consumption, GGDP as well as the moderating effect and mediating effect of energy consumption were analyzed. The results show that the coastal economically developed provinces and some provinces with poor fossil energy had relatively higher GGDP, while the main provinces with lower fossil energy extraction had lower GGDP. Population density shows the inverted "U" curve relationship with both the en- ergy consumption and GGDP, and the population density inflection values were much greater than the reality values. Energy consumption had a linear relationship with GGDP. Energy consumption played a partial mediating effect, but had not significant moderating effect on relationship between population density and green economic development.