中文摘要：

采用能值-生态足迹模型,对辽宁省2003—2012年生态安全状况进行时间序列的定量分析与评价,并采用灰色动力学模型预测其动态变化趋势.结果表明：研究期内辽宁省人均能值生态承载力从3.13 hm^2下降到3.07 hm^2,人均能值生态足迹由13.88 hm^2增加到21.96hm^2,处于生态赤字状态,且赤字增大趋势明显;生态压力指数由4.43增长到7.16,生态安全预警等级由轻警过渡到中警程度.照此发展,2013—2022年辽宁省人均能值生态承载力将由3.04 hm^2下降到2.98 hm^2,人均能值生态足迹将由22.72 hm^2上升到35.87 hm^2;生态赤字将越来越大,生态压力指数将由7.46上升到12.04,生态安全等级将由较安全变为轻度不安全状态,并呈现由中警到重警的生态安全预警等级,生态安全问题亟待解决.

英文摘要：

Based on the integrated model of emergy-ecological footprint approaches, the ecological security of Liaoning Province, a typical case for the old industrial area, was quantitatively evaluated from 2003 to 2012, followed by a scenario analysis on the development trend of the ecological security by employing the gray kinetic model. The results showed that, from 2003 to 2012, the value of emergy ecological-capacity per capita in Liaoning Province decreased from 3.13 hm2 to 3.07 hm2, while the emergy-ecological footprint increased from 13.88 hm2 to 21.96 hm2, which indicated that the ecological deficit existed in Liaoning Province and the situation was getting worse. The ecological pressure index increased from 4.43 to 7.16 during the studied period, and the alert level of ecologi- cal security changed from light to middle level. According to the development trend, the emergy ecological capacity per capita during 2013-2022 would correspondingly decrease from 3.04 hm2 to 2.98 hm2, while the emergy ecological footprint would increase from 22.72 hm2 to 35.87 hm2, the ecological pressure index would increase from 7.46 to 12.04, and the ecological deficit would keep increasing and the ecological security level would slide into slightly unsafe condition. The alert level of ecological security would turn to be middle or serious, suggesting the problems in ecological safe- ty needed to be solved urgently.