中文摘要：

对于耕地的粮食生产能力研究国内外多集中于评价其刚性损失,而缺乏对于其隐性损失的评价方法。本项研究利用经济计量分析方法及Arc GIS空间分析技术,以2008年北京市大兴区农户调研样点数据进行实例验证,分析粮食生产能力的隐性损失。结果表明：农户的耕地利用比较效益可导致耕地利用方式的变化和耕地利用强度的降低。其中耕地利用方式的变化可通过粮食播种面积的变化计算,耕地利用强度的变化可通过粮食作物的单产差异计算。同时在大兴区的实例研究中发现,测算样点潜力值呈现出区域分布规律：经济越发达的区域,耕地隐性生产能力损失越大,其粮食生产潜力也越大。

英文摘要：

The research on the productivity lose of the cultivated land was mostly put emphasis on land use conversion and few on the elastic loss of grain productivity.The method of the calculation was made to analyze the elastic loss of grain productivity in this paper,and methods as econometrics analysis,Arc GIS＇s spatial analysis and a case study of Daxing district in Beijng were employed.The result shows that comparative benefits of farm land could be the main reason to lead to the land use pattern change and land use intensity declining.Land use pattern conversion was calculated by change of grain planting area and the intensity change was calculated by grain yield difference.In the case study of Daxing district,the figures of the quantitative values of samples show that the regional distributing regularity is that the elastic loss of potential production was correlated with the economomic developed degree.