中文摘要：

文本采用非参数核密度方法对2005—2013年新疆城镇化的时空分布特征进行估计，并在此基础上，利用分位数回归模型模拟新疆城镇化发展的动力因素。研究发现：第一，在时间维度上，改革开放以来新疆城镇化经历了一个剧烈的波动过程，以2000年为拐点；2005-2013年新疆城镇化分布的演进趋势表明，新疆城镇化水平持续提高，地区差距明显扩大。在空间维度上，根据城镇化水平及其增速，将新疆各地州的城镇化划分为“高一高”型、“高一低”型、“低一高”型、“低一低”型四类地区。第二，分位数回归结果显示，资本投入、外向经济、产业结构对城镇化起正向促进作用，资本投入、外向经济均对城镇化中前期的影响较大，后期影响较小，产业结构的影响程度随着城镇化水平的提高而增强；行政力量、消费水平、水资源充裕程度对城镇化起负向抑制作用，行政力量、消费水平在中前期的影响均较大，水资源充裕程度在后期影响较大。

英文摘要：

The essay writers make an estimate of spatial-temporal distribution feature of urbanization in Xinjiang from2013 to 2015 by adopting nonparametric nuclear density and apply quantile regression model to simulate the dynamic factor for urbanization. The research findings cover： first, in time dimension, Xinjiang＇s urbanization has undergone drastic fluctuation since the reform and opening;with the year 2000 as a turning point,the developing trend of urbanization distribution from2005 t0 2013 indicates that the level of Xinjiang＇s urbanization was continuously raised,with a gap between regions obviously enlarged. In spatial dimension,according to the level and increasing rate of urbanization,the urbanization in different regions and prefectures is classified into＂high-high＂type,＂high-low＂type,＂low-high＂type and＂low-low＂type;second,quantile regression indicates that capital input, export-oriented economy and industrial structure play a positive role in promoting urbanization,with capital input and export-oriented economy influencing urbanization more at early and medium stage and less at later stage. The influence of industrial structure is increasing with the improvement of urbanization while administrative power, consumption level and water-resource abundance play a negative role of checking urbanization; administrative power and consumption level influence more at early and medium period while water-resource abundance influence more at later stage.