中文摘要：

采用HP滤波法，实证分析了1995～2011年我国奶业生产中的主要因素对生产波动性的影响及其区域特征。研究结果表明：我国奶业生产具有“波动中增长、增长中波动”的显著特征。15年发展中，原料奶总产量增长呈现出1．5个波动周期，原料奶价格波动呈现了5个周期。从影响因素看，原料奶产量波动对奶牛存栏敏感度高于平均单产，我国奶业属于数量增长型；原料奶价格波动受进口奶粉价格波动影响高于玉米价格，玉米价格在奶业链中向下游传导存在明显阻滞效应。从区域影响看，华北地区最为敏感和显著，华东和西南地区次之，区域问存在非均衡增长特征。

英文摘要：

In this paper, H-P filtering method is used in empirically analyzing the fluctuation-influencing fac- tors, wave characteristics and the regional characteristics of China＇s dairy production in 1995 -2010. The results of the study show that： the dairy production has a salient feature of growing in fluctuation and fluctuating in growth. In the 15 years of development, raw milk production growth presented 1.5 fluctuation cycles, and the milk price fluctuation 5 cycles. In terms of influencing factors, the fluctuation of raw milk output is more sensitive to the number of dairy cattle than the average yield per head, while the raw milk price fluctuation is more closely related with the fluctuation of imported milk powder price than that of corn price. In terms of regional characteris tics, North China is the most sensitive and significant region, while East China and the Southwest take the second place.