中文摘要：

目的研究上海市气温变化与医院儿科日门诊人次的关系。方法选用广义相加模型分析时间序列资料，在控制与时间有关的中长期趋势、星期效应、气象因素等混杂因素的基础上，分析上海市2001-2009年日均气温变化与儿科门诊人次的关系。结果当气温小于15℃时，每升高1℃，儿科门诊就诊的相对危险度为1．0235，95％CI为1．0252～1．0218；当气温在15％和20℃之间时，每升高1℃，儿科门诊就诊的相对危险度为0．9951，95％CI为：0．9972～0．9929；当气温大于20％时，每升高1℃，儿科门诊就诊的相对危险度为1．0345，95％CI为1．0368～1．0323。结论上海市日均气温对医院儿科门诊人次有影响。

英文摘要：

Objective To assess the association between air temperature and pediatric outpatient visits in Shanghai. Methods Generalized additive model（GAM） was used to analyze time series, on the basis of controlling factors such as medium-term and long-term trends of time, day of the week, weather, the association between air temperature and pediatric outpatient visits was estimated. Results When air temperature was below 15℃, between 15℃ and 20℃, above 20℃ , the corresponding relative risk and 95 % confidence interval was 1. 023 5 （ 95 % CI ： 1. 025 2 - 1.021 8 ）, 0. 9951 （ 95 % CI ： 0. 997 2 - 0. 992 9 ）, 0.995 1（95%CI：0.997 2 -0. 992 9）along with 1℃ increase of air temperature, respectively. Conclusion Air temperature had an impact on the number of pediatric outpatient visits in Shanghai.