本文利用2003--2008年中国A股上市公司的数据,研究分析师本地优势和信息披露对其预测准确性的影响,发现两者对分析师预测准确性均有显著影响。研究结论表明,我国分析师行业存在本地优势现象,即与公司在同地的分析师其盈余预测更准确;研究还发现公司信息披露质量越高,分析师预测准确性越高;同时,考察这两个因素对分析师预测准确性的影响,发现两者为互补关系,即两者共同作用,提高分析师盈余预测的准确性。这表明分析师进行盈余预测时,不仅依赖公司披露的公共信息,还依赖自身凭借本地优势获取的私有信息。本文的结论加深了我们对分析师行为的理解,而对分析师行为的充分了解可以帮助投资者更好地理解分析师预测误差,从而有助于增强证券市场的有效性,促进资源合理配置。
Using the sample of analyst earnings forecasts for Chinese listed firms from 2003 to 2008, this study examines the relationship between home advantage,information disclosure quality, and analyst forecast accuracy. Empirical results show that analyst home advantage exists in China. We also find that information disclosure quality is positively associated with analyst forecast accuracy. Furthermore, information disclosure quality and home advantage are complementary: they jointly improve analyst forecasts accuracy. We also show that analysts' earnings forecasts depend on both public and private information. Our results are helpful for investors to understand analyst's behavior and forecast bias, and thereby help to enhance the effectiveness of securities market, and increase resource allocation efficiency.