中文摘要：

为了探讨紫荆关流域降雨与径流变化的规律，采用Mann—Kendall秩次相关检验法对紫荆关流域1956～2005年长系列降雨、径流资料进行了分析，并给出了降雨变化对径流变化贡献程度的定量描述方法。结果表明：紫荆关流域年径流量有明显的下降趋势，年降雨量有下降的趋势，但不显著；年降雨量与年径流量有一致的变化趋势，且二者变化过程关系密切，降雨是影响径流变化的主要因素，其贡献程度达到了39．68％；由于受到非降雨因素的影响，二者的相关性随着年代的推移呈减弱的趋势变化。

英文摘要：

The Kendall order correlation test is used to find the law of the evolvement of rainfall and runoff in the Zijingguan Basin. Based on the long series of data of rainfall and runoff in the Zijingguan Basin from 1956 to 2005, the quantitative method is put forward for revealing the contribution rate between change in rainfall and that in runoff. The results show that the downtrend is marked in annual runoff,while it＇s unapparent in annual rainfall. The trends of change are the same. And the relationship between processes of rainfall and runoff is consanguineous. Whereas the contribution rate is 39.68% ,so the rainfall is the main influencing factor for runoff. And because of influencing of other factors, the contribution rate is descending. The results will provide rational references for water resources programming and using of the Zijingguan Basin.