在掌握西藏南部(26°~32°N,78°~98°E)19次历史地震数据后,从时间对称性方面研究该区域历史地震发生规律,分析未来地震发生的可能时间,从而为西藏地震灾害的监测提供一定的依据。从三元、四元和五元可公度信息提取法和蝴蝶结构法进行分析,得出未来10年内,西藏南部Ms≥6.6级地震的信号在2012年、2013年和2015年较强,有发生6.6级以上地震的可能。
Historic earthquake activity in Tibet has been analyzed by the time symmetry based on the 19 times historical seismic data of southern Tibet (26° -32°N, 78°-98°E), and predicted the time of the future earthquake occurrence and provided the basic reference for earthquake monitoring in Tibet. Based on the meth- od of commensurability information extract including the results show that in the next 10 years, there is a Tibet in 2012,2013,2015. ternary, quaternary and quintuple and butterfly structure, probability of Ms≥6.6 earthquakes occurred in southem