以我国1993—2008年间的ISO9000认证数和对外贸易相关统计数据为基础,运用协整分析、格兰杰因果分析和多元回归对两者的关系进行定量研究,得出如下几点结论:第一,我国ISO9000认证与对外贸易间存在长期稳定的均衡关系;第二,我国ISO9000认证是对外贸易的Granger原因;第三,当ISO9000认证受到一定冲击发生变化时,能够给出口贸易增长带来长久、持续的正向影响,而对进口贸易的影响则是相反;第四,我国不同行业的ISO9000认证对行业进出口贸易的影响程度存在明显的差异,其中技术密集型最大,劳动密集型最小。文章最后提出了加强我国ISO90000认证工作的相关建议。
Based on the statistical data from 1993 to 2008, this paper analyzes the relationship between ISO9000 and import-export trade . The results indicated: (1)there is a long and stable equilibrium relation between ISO9000 and import-export trade ; (2) ISO9000 is the Granger cause for the import-export trade;( 3 ) change of ISO9000 can bring sustainable positive effect to export trade and negative effect to import trade ; (4) ISO9000 certification in different industries influence the import-export trade is different, of which the largest technology-intensive, labor-intensive minimum.