中文摘要：

以塔里木河流域的21个气象站和10个水文站1961～2000年观测资料为基础,对塔里木河流域的温度、降水及径流变化进行了分析.结果得出：（1）20世纪60年代以来塔里木河流域的年平均气温呈逐年代递增趋势,源流区的年平均气温增高了0.57℃,上游区增高了0.6℃,中游区增高了0.7℃,下游区增高了0.8℃,越往下游方向变暖趋势越明显,并且气温增高幅度逐步加大.（2）60年代以来塔里木河流域的年降水量也逐年递增,但是与温度的增幅趋势相反,从源流区到下游区,降水增幅逐步减少,源流区平均增加了34.2%,上游区增加了22.0%,中游区增加了15.3%,下游区只增加了6.1%.（3）该流域各源流的出山口径流量除和田河减少外,阿克苏河增加9.04亿m^3,叶尔羌河增加5.51亿m^3,开都河增加9.27亿m^3.（4）该流域源流径流受温度和降水变化的双重影响,源流区的气候变暖和变湿是塔里木河源流径流量增长的一个非常重要的因素.

英文摘要：

Based on observations of 21 meteorological stations and 10 hydrological stations of the Tarim River Basin, the changes of temperature, precipitation and runoff are analyzed from 1961 to 2000. Four conclusions can be drawn as follows ： （ 1 ） The mean annual temperature of the catchment has been increasing, and the long-term annual temperature is increased by 0. 8℃ in the lower reaches area which is higher than that of the middle （0.7℃）, upper（0.6℃ ） and source（0.57℃ ） reaches area. （2） The mean annual precipitation of the catchment has also been increasing, and the long-term annual precipitation is increased by 6. 1% in the lower reaches area which is less than that of the middle （ 15.3 % ）, upper （ 22.0% ） and source （ 34.2% ） reaches area. （3） The runoff volumes of all headstreams at their debouchures has been increased except Hotan river, and the long-term runoff volumes are respectively increased by 9.04×10^8 m^3 （ Akesu river）, 5.51×10^8 m^3 （ Yarkent river） and 9.27×10^8 m^3（Kaidu river）. （4） Affected by both temperature and precipitation, the headstream＇s climatic change to warm-wet is the all-important factor of the increasing runoff volume in the Tarim River Basin.