2007年以来金融危机席卷全球,一些国家外汇市场剧烈动荡,与以往不同的是,市场化程度较高的浮动汇率制度下的许多国家亦发生了较为严重的货币危机。在此背景下,汇率制度的效果又一次成为政府和学术界关注的焦点。由此,本文以1978-2009年间180个国家的数据作为样本,对不同汇率制度的效果进行了多角度、全方位的分析和比较。首先,在对这期间的货币危机以各国货币对SDR的汇率重新进行识别基础上,对不同汇率制度下货币危机的发生情况进行了分析对比;进一步地,剔除货币危机时段,比较了不同汇率制度平稳运行的时间长度以及经济增长和通货膨胀效果;最后,综合上述实证分析结果,总结了不同汇率制度的效果特点及优劣,本文研究结论对我国未来汇率制度变革有重要的借鉴和启示意义。
As financial crisis beginning in 2007 influences the global economy, currency crisis even happen in some developed countries under float exchange rate regimes. So, it is a key problem for the governments and scholars which exchange rate regime is better at effect. Thus, this paper collects the data from 180 countries in 1978-2009, and recognizes the currency crisis based on the exchange rate to SDR; then, compares the effect of exchange rate regimes in the ratio and the duration of currency crisis, and the duration, the economic growth and the inflation in the steady period. Based on the analysis, the paper summarizes the advantage and disadvantage of exchange rate regimes further. The conclusion is implicational and meaningful for China in altering the exchange rate regimes.