与以往的信息不对称假说、流动性差异假说和需求差异假说不同,本文研究不同市场系统性风险差异对A+H股价差的解释能力。我们证明了两个市场系统性风险的差异,即两个经济体的基本面不同,是A+H股价差的一个重要驱动因素。进而推导出价格差异与经济基本面差异之间的函数关系,并以可观测变量——政府债务收益率作为经济基本面的代表进行间接检验。实证结果显示政府债务收益率第一、二主成分对A+H股价差的解释能力超过63%,考虑到政府债务收益率对经济基本面的代表性,我们可以断定:经济基本面的差异对A+H股价差的解释力度会远高于这一水平。
We analyzed the factors affect A + H price difference from a macro perspective. First, we decomposed return to the discount rate news and the cash flow news, we proved that systematic risk driving A + H price difference. Then, we derive the relationship between A + H price difference and macroeconomic fundamental. Finally, we verify it using term structure of interest rate. The empirical evidence is that the yield curve can illustrate more than 63% of A + H price difference variation. Considering the representation of term structure of interest rate for maeroeconomic fundamental, we can affirm that explanatory ability of systematic risk can highly exceed this figure.