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中文摘要：
基于季节模型的理论，通过建立不同的数学模型研究每月支气管炎发病人数．通过EViews软件对青海海西州地区支气管炎发病例监测登记资料进行统计分析，并对原数据进行季节调整，剔除季节波动，排除了季节因素的干扰，同时利用不同的数学模型对原数据进行预测，观察每月支气管炎发病人数的发展趋势．
英文摘要：
Based on the theory of season model, different mathematic models were established to study the number of bronchitis each month. Statistical analysis on the registration cases of bronchitis situation in Haixizhou region of Qinghai Province was done by EViews software. The original data were adjusted, excluding seasonal fluctuations and the interference of seasonal factors. Different mathematic models were used to predict the originate number and observe the development trend of bronchitis＇ number each month.
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