中文摘要：

2030年，中国将成为发达国家，届时人们将消费更多肉品。肉品转化自粮食，为生产更多肉品，满足人们的消费需求，需要生产更多粮食。该研究表明，2030年，中国需要生产1．4亿吨肉品，按目前的生产方式，肉奶蛋生产消耗原粮5．6亿吨，口粮、种子粮、工业粮增加不多，粮食总产量需达8．8亿吨，饲料粮占64％；因此粮食安全是指饲料粮安全，即肉品安全，积极探索肉品生产途径是解决粮食安全的根本。转变肉品生产方式，即降低猪肉生产至44％，增加放牧草食动物肉生产至32％，肉奶蛋生产消耗原粮降至4．5亿吨，粮食总需求降至7．7亿吨；增加草食动物肉生产的必要条件是集约化管理草地、集约化管理牧场，充分利用作物秸秆，并开放40％的林地发展林下草地畜牧业。

英文摘要：

In 2030, China will be a developed country and the people will consume more meat. It is well known that meat comes from grass and/or grain, thus it is vital to produce more grass and grain for producing more meat to satisfy the people needs and maintain the market stability. This paper reports that China will need 140 million tons of meat and the consumption of raw grain should be 560 million tons for producing the needs of meat, milk and egg according to the present production mode in 2030. Moreover, staple food grain, seed grain and industrial grain increase no more than now, the total grain output should reach to 880 million tons and feed grain account for 64% in 2030. Thus, feed grain security is the basis of the food security. Meat security as well as actively exploring the pathway of meat production is fundamental to solve food security in 2030,China. Changing the mode of meat production, reducing pork production to 44% and increasing grazing animal meat production to 32%, will reduce the consumption of raw grain to 450 million tons for producing the needs of meat, milk and egg ,the total consuption of grain reduced to 770 million tons. In order to increase grazing ani- mal meat production, it is necessary to intensively manage grassland and farm, make full use of crop straw and open 40% woodland to develop grazing animal production