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中文摘要：
进行全坝全过程温度场仿真分析,计算工作量大;采用数理统计分析方法或神经网络等智能方法建立的温度预测模型本质上是一个经验模型,当通水水温和通水流量突然发生变化时,外延预报精度差。建议了一种混凝土坝中后期冷却期间浇筑仓温度动态预测模型,即采用无热源水管冷却问题的混凝土平均温度计算式,联合实测温度,对无热源水管冷却问题的混凝土平均温度计算式中的Ti进行动态更新,动态预测浇筑仓降温过程线。实例分析表明,采用无热源水管冷却问题的混凝土平均温度计算式,结合浇筑仓当前实测温度可以方便快捷地对未来7～10d的温度状态进行动态预测,为中后期通水冷却浇筑仓温度的智能调控提供及时的参考。
英文摘要：
In view of the temperature fields’ simulation analysis on the full dam progress,a dynamic forecasting model of the casting warehouse during the middle-late cooling period was established,by combining the concrete average thermometer formula of the pipe cooling without heat source with the measured temperature to dynamically updating the Ti in the formula,and predicting the cooling process line of the casting warehouse.The analysis of a case showed that adopting that formula and combining the currently pouring temperature can make a dynamic forecast about the temperature of the future 7 to 10 days,and can provide an immediately reference for the intelligent control of the pouring deck’s water cooling in the later time.
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