在具有不确定出行时间的交通网络中,假设出行者的参考点是异质的,服从某一连续分布函数,且风险偏好参数是依赖于参考点的,建立了一个基于累积前景理论的多用户网路均衡模型。研究表明,不同类的用户对风险的反应是不一样的,具有高参考点和低参考点的出行者均倾向于选择风险高的路径以期获得较高的感知价值,而具有中等参考点的出行者则倾向于选择风险较低的路径。此外,对两种交通管理措施进行了敏感性分析,结果表明,道路拓宽对于提高整个社会的感知价值是一个有效的方法,但其边际效益是递减的。然而,就风险管理而言,不同类的用户表现出不同的喜好。一般来说,具有低参考点的出行者能够从这一方法中受益,而具有高参考点的出行者则会失去潜在的风险收益。
In a traffic network with uncertain travel time,we postulate that the travelers are heterogeneous in terms of their reference points,which follow a continuous distribution function,and at the same time the de-gree of the diminishing sensitivity is dependent on the reference points. We then develop a multi-class,cumu-lative prospect theory-based equilibrium model by incorporating these heterogeneities. The results show the risk is treated by different users in different manners:those with higher and lower reference points prefer the routes with higher risks to get a higher perceived value,and those with medium reference points mainly focus on the routes with lower risks. In addition,a sensitivity analysis is conducted with respect to two management methods,i. e. ,road expansion and risk management in improving the perceived value for each kind of users. The results show that road expansion is an effective way in improving the social perceived value but with de-creasing marginal effect. However,as far as risk management is concerned,different users represent distinct preferences. In general,users with lower reference points can benefit from it while users with higher reference points will lose their potential gain.