中文摘要：

东海海域水质污染严重,长江口、杭州湾和象山港等重点区域劣四类水质面积居高不下,无机氮是最主要的污染因子,对无机氮未来趋势的预测及风险空间分布的分析可为减缓和治理东海海域污染提供管理依据。基于2002~2013年东海无机氮的趋势性监测数据,利用IDW插值和回归分析方法对其发展趋势进行预测,并根据其发展趋势预测今后3 a东海海域无机氮含量,划分了东海无机氮污染的高、中、较低和低风险区,为东海无机氮污染控制提供科学依据。

英文摘要：

Water pollution of East China Sea is very serious,especially in the surrounding sea waters of Yangtze estuary,Hangzhou bay and Xiangshan harbour. The water quality of these areas is worse than the Sea Water Quality Standard Category Ⅳ and inorganic nitrogen is the main pollution factor. Accurate prediction of the future trends and risk spatial distribution of inorganic nitrogen could provide an important tool for reducing and managing the marine pollution. In this paper,IDW interpolation and regression analysis were used to predict the development trend of the inorganic nitrogen in East China Sea,based on the monitoring data of the inorganic nitrogen from the year 2002 to2013. The content of the inorganic nitrogen over the next three years was predicted,furthermore,the pollution risk of inorganic nitrogen in East China Sea was divided into four zones with risk degrees of high,medium,lower and lowest,which could provide a scientific base for controlling the inorganic nitrogen pollution of East China Sea.