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中文摘要：
针对在农产品生产过程中不可控天气与可控的生产商努力水平同时影响产量及质量的问题,建立了考虑天气与努力水平影响的农产品供应链随机利润模型,分析了不利天气对生产商与销售商最优决策的影响,比较分析了集中式与分散式决策下的最优决策,进而设计了一种与天气指数相关的＂风险分担＋回购＂的组合式契约.研究表明：不利天气降低了生产商的努力水平,而不利天气对销售商所决策零售价格的影响是由不利天气对产量及质量影响的综合效应来确定的.此外,分散式决策下扭曲了努力水平与零售价格并降低了系统利润.但在所设计的组合式契约下不利天气的影响不会改变农产品供应链的协调状态,这在一定程度上可保障优质农产品的稳定供应.最后用数值仿真验证了协调机制的有效性.
英文摘要：
For the fact that output and quality of agricultural products are influenced by uncontrollable weather and controllable effort level of agricultural producer during the agricultural production process, an agri-food supply chain profit model considering weather and effort level was developed. We analyzed the influence of the adverse weather on the optimal decisions of agricultural producer and distributer, and then comparatively analyzed the optimal decisions under centralized and decentralized supply chain. Furthermore, we designed a ＂risk sharing ~ buy-back＂ combinational contract which is related to the weather index. The conclusions show that adverse weather reduces the effort level of agricultural producer and affects the retailer determined price by influencing both output and quality. In addition, the effort level and price are twisted under decentralized decision model. Furthemore, the influence of adverse weather will not change the state of agri-food supply chain coordination under combinational contract, which ensure a steady supply of high quality agricultural products to the certain degree. Finally, a numerical simulation is used to verify the effectiveness of the coordination mechanism.
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