中文摘要：

通过构建水资源与农业经济增长的面板VAR模型，利用1998—2009年中国省级面板数据，检验与分析了水资源与农业经济增长的内在依存和因果关系。研究结果表明：①东部、中部和西部地区水资源和农业经济增长之间存在长期协整关系：②无论在短期内，还是在长期内，东部、中部和匿部地区的水资源均是推动农业经济增长的重要因素。并且随着时间的推移，水资源对农业经济增长的影响逐步加强；⑧农业经济增长对水资源的影响存在明显的区域差异。中部地区所受影响最大，东部次之，西部相对较小。因此，为实现水资源与农业经济增长的协调发展，中国应该提高农业水资源的利用效率，根据各区域水资源和农业经济增长的不同因果关系因地制宜地制定水资源政策。

英文摘要：

Using provincial panel data from 1998 to 2009,this paper analyzes the relationship between water resource and agricultural economic growth in China based on panel VAR model. The conclusions can be listed as follows：（1）there is long-run co-integration relationship between water resource and agricultural economic growth in the eastern, middle and western China; （2）regardless of short term or long term, water resource has a positive effect on agricultural economic growth and this effect is gradually strengthened with the passage of time ; （3）the impact of agricultural economic growth on water resource has significant regional difference and the rank ordering from the high impact to the low impact is middle region, eastern region and western region. Therefore, to realize the harmonious development of water resource and agricultural economic growth, China should enhance agricultural water resource use efficiency and formulate water resource policy according to the different causal relationship between water resource and agricultural economic growth in the eastern, middle and western regions.