中文摘要：

为对开采煤层的自燃危险性进行有效预测,引入岩石工程系统理论,综合分析各因素之间的相互作用关系,构建交互作用矩阵,并进行编码。通过因果分析图对各影响因素的参数优势和交互作用强度进行定性分析,同时建立基于岩石工程系统理论的开采煤层自燃危险性预测模型,并选用已知样本对模型预测结果进行验证。结果表明,该预测模型为开采煤层自燃危险性预测提供了一种方法,可靠性较好,有应用价值。

英文摘要：

In order to get an effective prediction of coal spontaneous combustion in coal mine,a powerful method rock engineering systems（RES） is presented,which is a comprehensive approach to analyze the relationship of all factors.The interaction matrix was utilized to describe the general concept of the influences.Meanwhile,the weights and the parameter interaction situation of the factors contributing to spontaneous combustion are evaluated by the cause-effect（C-E） plot.Then,a new model for prediction of coal spontaneous combustion is presented based upon the basic concepts of rock engineering systems.Finally,several samples of spontaneous combustion occurred in coal mine were used to validate the prediction performance of new model.The results show that rock engineering system is a valuable new tool for predicting the coal spontaneous combustion,which suggested relatively good concordance in coal mine,and it is valuable for applications.