基于1978~2013年上海人均生产总值与文化场馆数量、公园景区数量的时间序列数据,通过建立向量自回归模型,对经济发展和休闲设施建设的关系进行分析。研究发现:人均生产总值分别与文化场馆数量、公园景区数量之间存在长期均衡关系;公园景区数量和人均生产总值、文化场馆数量之间存在单向的格兰杰因果关系,其他因果关系不成立;脉冲响应分析表明公园景区数量增加有助于提升经济发展水平,但一定程度上会抑制文化场馆的投资建设;公园景区数量增加对于人均生产总值变动的贡献度,以及人均生产总值水平的提升对于文化场馆数量贡献度均较大。
This paper establishes a VAR model based on the time series data of Shanghai GDP per capita and the number of cultural venues, park and tourism scenic from 1978~2013, for the purpose of studying the relation between economic developments of leisure facilities. The results show that: firstly, there exists co-integration relations between GDP per capita and the number of cultural venues, park and tourism scenic; secondly,there are respectively long term Granger casual relations among GDP per capita, the number of parks and tourism scenic spots, and the number of cultural venues; thirdly, the increase in the number of parks and tourism scenic spots helps to improve economic development, but it will also inhibit investment in building cultural venues; fourthly, the contribution of increasing number of parks and tourism scenic spots to the change in GDP per capita, and the contribution of GDP per capita to the change in the number of cultural venues are both significant.