中文摘要：

气候变暖和经济发展正对人类赖以生存的生态系统产生巨大的压力,这导致了生态系统的退化,以及随之而来的生态系统服务的丧失。本文以Landsat遥感影像为数据源,以喜马拉雅中部的柯西河流域为研究区,分析了1990-2010年该区域土地覆被变化,以及随之产生的生态系统服务价值的变化。继而运用CA-Markov模型模拟了未来2030年和2050年柯西河流域的土地覆被状况,并分析了2010-2050年的土地覆被和生态系统服务的变化情况。研究结果表明：1990-2010年,柯西河流域的生态系统服务价值减少了2.05′10~8 USD y~（-1）。从土地覆被类型上看,森林、冰川和裸地的生态系统服务价值呈持续减少态势,而农田的生态系统服务价值则呈持续增加态势。1990-2050年间,森林生态系统服务价值减少最为显著,高达11.87′10~8 USD y~（-1）,而农田生态服务价值增加则最为显著,多达3.05′10~8 USD y~（-1）。尼泊尔境内的森林砍伐、耕地开垦和加德满都等城市的扩张造成了柯西河流域生态系统服务价值的降低,这一过程则可能与该区域日益增多的人类活动密不可分。

英文摘要：

Climate warming and economic developments have created pressures on the ecological systems that human populations rely on,and this process has contributed to the degradation of ecosystems and the loss of ecosystem services.In this study,Landsat satellite data were chosen as the data source and the Koshi River Basin（KB） in the central high Himalayas as the study area.Changes in land cover and changes in the value of ecosystem services between 1990 and 2010 were analyzed and the land cover pattern of the KB in 2030 and 2050 was modeled using the CA-Markov model.Changes in land cover and in the value of ecosystem services in the KB for the period 2010–2050 were then analyzed.The value of ecosystem services in the KB was found to decrease by 2.05×10~8 USD y~（-1） between 1990 and 2010.Among these results,the services value of forest,snow/glacier and barren area decreased,while that of cropland increased.From 1990 to 2050,forest showed the largest reduction in ecosystem services value,as much as 11.87×10~8 USD y~（-1）,while cropland showed the greatest increase,by 3.05×10~8 USD y~（-1）.Deforestation and reclamation in Nepal contributed to a reduction in the value of ecosystem services in the KB.Barren areas that were transformed into water bodies brought about an increase in ecosystem services value in the lower reaches of the Koshi River.In general,this process is likely to be related to increasing human activity in the KB.