中文摘要：

由于模型参数的近似处理和量测误差的存在，电力系统仿真模型参数的数值具有不确定性，特引入区间泰勒模型算法来处理电力系统仿真计算中的不确定性问题，并采用区间泰勒模型来描述模型参数的不确定性，将方程变量变换为区间泰勒模型。区间泰勒模型算法是在普通区间算法基础上引入符号计算的思想形成的，它可在一定程度上记录变量之间的相关性，从而削减普通区间算法由于过估计产生的保守性问题。该文提出一种电力系统时域仿真的区间泰勒模型算法，该算法克服普通区间算法的结果过于保守的缺点，可得到与蒙特卡罗法相当接近的结果，计算量却比蒙特卡罗法要小得多。采用新英格兰10机算例系统的计算结果与传统时域仿真的点值法和蒙特卡罗方法的结果比较，也验证了方法的有效性和应用价值。

英文摘要：

Due to approximation and measurement errors, there is uncertainty in the parameter of power system simulation model. In order to deal with uncertainty problem in power system simulation, interval Taylor model arithmetic was introduced. The model parameters uncertainty was described by Taylor model and each variable in equations was transformed to Taylor model. Interval Taylor model arithmetic is one of the productions by introducing symbolic techniques into naive interval arithmetic, which can record the correlation among variables to some extent, thus help to reduce the overestimation. Time domain simulation under interval Taylor model arithmetic was presented. This method can avoid the conservative results of naive interval arithmetic and computationally more efficient than Monte Carlo method without sacrificing accuracy. The proposed method was tested on New England 10-unit system. The results demonstrate the effectiveness and practical value of the approach by comparing with the results of Monte Carlo simulation and traditional time domain simulation.