中文摘要：

为了考察序列间动态变化趋势的相似性,提出了衡量变化率接近程度的灰色变化率关联度,并讨论了灰色变化率关联度的性质,进而基于变化率关联度提出了灰关联空间分解的新方法。根据行为序列与特征序列变化率正负性的一致性,构建空间分解指数,对灰关联空间进行分解,对特征序列与行为序列进行灰色趋势分析,识别出与特征序列的变化趋势基本保持同步的行为序列。既能够根据变化率关联度对全体行为序列进行排序,也可以在子空间内部再根据变化率关联度进行排序,从而分别在同步子空间与异向子空间识别出关键因素与次要因素。最后将基于变化率关联度的灰色趋势分析应用于阜新煤炭产业集群关键影响因素的识别中,并与其它关联度结果进行了对比分析,验证了本文模型的有效性。

英文摘要：

In order to measure the similarity in the change trends between sequences,the grey change rate relational analysis（C-GRA）model has been established.The properties of the C-GRA model such as are studied in this paper.To research the consistency of the change direction between sequences,a new method for space decomposition has been put forth based on the C-GRA model with sign functionssgn（y0（tk）·yi（tk））.According to the consistency of positive or negative changes,the space decomposition index was proposed as Pi =sgn2n[k∑=2sgn1y0（tk）·yi（tk）],and the space was decomposed.Then,agrey trend analy=sis on the characteristic and behavioral sequences was performed to identify the sequences that shared the same step with the characteristics sequence.It should be noted that the entire ranking of the behavior sequences are not the only data that can be obtained;rather,the rankings in separate spaces can also be obtained,so the key factors in the promotion subspace,the inhibition subspace,and the coordinate subspace are clear.In the last part of this paper,the factors that affect the production of coal in the city of Fuxin are studied using the grey trend analysis,as based on the C-GRA model.Date is from the government of Fuxin.This application is presented to illustrate the effectiveness and practicality of the proposed model.