中文摘要：

在塔里木河流域农业供水成本水价基础上，基于流域节水灌溉技术的成本投入，首先构建了流域农业节水水价；然后，利用流域农业水价和灌水量资料构建了流域农业水价的需求效应模型，分析了未来塔河流域节水水价的节水效应，研究结果表明：基于节水水价的未来农业水价的调整可大幅降低灌水量，提高水价的节水效应；而且，如果农业水价弹性系数同时被提高，较单独提高农业水价，未来塔河流域水价的节水效应更高；尤其是，未来农业水价的需求效应分析事关流域用水户的水价承受力和粮食安全问题，是未来塔河流域农业水价调整需要重点探讨的内容。

英文摘要：

On the basis of water cost price of agricultural water-supply in Tarim River basin, according to the cost of water saving irrigation technology, the basin agricultural water price with water-saving is established in this paper. Then, based on the basin agricultural water price and irrigation data, the demand effect model is established to analyze the water-saving effect of the future agricultural water price with water-saving. The research results show that the future adjustment of agricultural water price based on water price with water-saving can greatly reduce irrigation water quantity and enhance the water-saving effect of water price. Furthermore, compared with the condition that only the agricultural water price is enhanced, if the elastic coefficient of agricultural water is enhanced at the same time, the water-saving effect of the water price in Tarim River basin of the latter will be higher. The demand effect analysis of future agricultural water price is relative to the carrying capacity for water price of farmers and the safety of food production and is the key contents needed to discuss for the future adjustment of agricultural water price in Tarim River basin.