中文摘要：

在现阶段基于临界降雨阈值的区域地质灾害预警预报中,尚缺乏对降雨过程中地质灾害风险动态关注,影响到预警的及时性和响应的准确性。本文依托已有群测群防监测预警网络,采用事件树分析与模糊综合评判相结合的方法,通过易发性动态相似度更新、有效雨量实时监测、承灾状态等要素过程评价,修正静态风险评价框架模型,进行区域降雨引发地质灾害动态风险评价方法的探索。并以2012年台风＂苏拉＂期间福建省德化县浔中镇为例,进行实例验证。

英文摘要：

At present,it is lack of the attention of dynamics of geological disaster risk in the process of rainfall,affect the timeliness of the early warning and the accuracy of response in the warning forecast of regional geological disaster based on the critical rainfall threshold. In this paper,relying on the existing monitoring and the early warning network of mass monitoring and prevention,using event tree analysis method combined with the fuzzy comprehensive evaluation,by the process evaluation of the elements,including the dynamic similarity updating of liability,the real-time monitoring of effective rainfall,the state of hazardaffected etc,corrected the framework model of the static risk assessment,explore the dynamic risk evaluation method of geological disasters caused by rainfall. Verify of the method by taking Xunzhong Town in Dehua County of the Fujian province as an example during the typhoon ＂Sura＂in 2012.