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中文摘要：
对重大自然灾害趋势判断的时空对称分析方法进行总结,利用该方法研究了所罗门群岛俯冲带强震的时空变化特征,对该区的未来强震做出趋势判断。结果表明：①强震活动与区域地质活动关系密切,历史强震均发生在俯冲带一侧。②强震活动在时间分布上具有可公度性。所罗门群岛地区在2015年发生7.4级以上地震的信号较强,蝴蝶结构图表明2015年发生M≥7.4级强震的概率为46.7%,不漏报水平43.75%。③在空间分布上,强震震中呈东西对称跃移,且具有沿板块边界运动的特点。震中跃移具有规律的经纬对称性和经纬同步性,在经度上以160°E为对称轴摆动,在纬度上以10°S为对称轴上下摆动。根据震中跃移的空间对称和最小作用量原理判断,下一次地震的震中位置在纬度上可能逼近9.5°S以北位置,在经度上可能逼近160°E以西的位置。
英文摘要：
In this paper,space-time symmetry method of the major natural disasters tendency judgment is summarized,the method was used to study the spatial and temporal variations of strong earthquake in Solomon islands and its surrounding seas,and the tendency judgment of strong earthquake. Results show that： ①the strong earthquake activity closely associated with regional plate tectonic setting,the historical earthquake had occurred on one side in the subduction zone. ②Strong earthquake activity in time distribution have the commensurability. We believe that there is a strong signal that the earthquake with Ms≥7. 8 will occur in 2014.The butterfly diagram shows that the probability of occurrence of M≥7. 4 earthquake is 46. 7% or higher,no omission of level is 43. 75% in 2015. ③On the spatial distribution earthquake epicenter moves back and forth in east and west symmetrically. The migration of Epicenter has obvious symmetry and synchronization in longitude and latitude,swing on the longitude 160°E as the axis of symmetry,on the latitude to 10°S bobbing as the axis of symmetry. According to the space symmetric of the epicenter and the least action principle,the next earthquake epicenter will migrate in the north of 9. 5°S location,and west of 160°E.
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