中文摘要：

通过贵州省输沙模数对全球气候变化的响应进行分析可以确定水土流失的重点区域,有助于制定喀斯特地区合理的中长期水土保持计划。利用HadCM3模型对A2情景（人口快速增长、经济发展缓慢）和B2情景（强调社会技术创新）下贵州省未来3个时期1980-2020年、2020-2050年、2050-2080年输沙模数的增减进行分析,研究结果为：未来3个时期A2和B2情景下输沙模数增幅逐渐增大,相对基准期1980年最大增幅分别达34.45%和19.15%。未来3个时期A2情景下输沙模数增幅最大的区域分别集中在六盘水和黔西南;六盘水、黔西南、遵义和铜仁北部;六盘水、黔西南、遵义东北部、毕节西部和安顺。B2情景下输沙模数增幅最大的区域分别集中在六盘水和黔西南;六盘水南部、黔西南西部和遵义东北部;遵义北部和毕节部分地区。

英文摘要：

The rate of erosion can be expected to change in correspondence to climate change. It is useful to analyze the response of soil erosion to global climate change and for karst regional planning of soil and water conservation strategy. This study was conducted to assess the potential effects of climate change on the rate of erosion in karst areas of Guizhou Province under A2 and B2 scenarios for the periods of 2020s, 2050s and 2080s with the HadCM3 . The results show a notable increase in the rate of erosion for both scenarios A2 and B2 across Guizhou Province except a small area of decrease in Zunyi, Tongren and North Qiandongnan from 1980s to 2020s. The increase in rate of erosion varies from region to region. The maximal range distributes respectively in Liupanshui and Qianxinan; Zunyi and north of Tongren; Panshui, Qianxinan, northeast of Zunyi, west of Bijie and Anshun under scenario A2 in the coming three periods. Under scenario B2 in the coming three periods the maximal range distributes respectively in Liupanshui and Qianxinan; south of Liupanshui, west of Qianxinan and northeast of Zunyi;north of Zunyi and a part area of Bijie.