中文摘要：

国家风险是国际市场中的主要风险要素之一,理解其本质特征能有效的减少对外经济活动中源于其它国家的不确定性损失。针对国家风险的复杂性与易变性特征,本文引入分解思想,试图将国家风险波动分解成不同时间尺度的模态并分别进行特征识别,以把握国家风险的内在规律。在实证研究中,本文以12个代表性国家为研究对象,从长期趋势、中期走势与短期波动三个时间尺度对国家风险进行了多尺度特征分析,得出一些有意义的结论。

英文摘要：

Country risk has become one of the main risks in the international market,and understanding its intrinsic characteristics will help avoid uncertain loss in international activities.Due to the intrinsic complex and mutability of country risk,this paper first tries to decompose country risk into several modes with different time scales based on mode decomposition,and then identifies the economic characteristics of the modes of country risk.An empirical study about 12 representative countries,including China,the USA,India,Russia,Iraq,etc,is given.The corresponding results show that country risk mainly has three different time scales,i.e.long-term,mediumterm and short-term time scales.Some meaningful conclusions are derived from the multi-scale characteristics analysis.